On the 4th local time, the Indian capital market encountered three kills in debt.The preliminary coupon results of the Indian election in the 2024 Indian election in 2024 showed that the advantages of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Indian Prime Minister Modi India (BJP) did not reach the previous polls and market expectations.EssenceSurat Wealth Management
In the afternoon, the Indian Sensex Index and the Indian Nifty Index continued to fall, and the declines were expanded to more than 5%.The Indian VIX panic index jumped 34%, the largest single -day increase since February 2022.Bank stocks fell, and the decline in Indian National Banks expanded to 10%.The stock price of the port of Adida Group in India fell by 20%, the largest decline since February 2023.10 -year Indian Treasury yields up to 10 basis points to 7.04%.India’s rupees also fell to 83.44 to the US dollar, the lowest point in the day.
On June 1, local time, export polls show that among the 543 seats in the Indian parliament, the National Democratic Alliance will win more than 350 seats, which will be much higher than the 272 seats required for most seats, which also means that, it also means that, it also means thatModi will be the first prime minister to be the first prime minister since the founding Prime Minister of India, Javaharal Nicru.
▲ Indian Prime Minister Modi (Source: Xinhua News Agency)
Data from the Indian Election Commission show that although BJP is still expected to win, the seats will be much less than 2019.As of the first financial publication, of the 311 constituencies that have been announced, preliminary votes showed that BJP may win 153 seats in the House of India, and the main opposition to the Indian National Assembly party will receive 61 seats.The analysis believes that this may lead to BJP’s economic reform in the plan, including increasing expenditure in infrastructure and manufacturing, and will face greater challenges.Kanpur Wealth Management
Earlier, Christopher Wood, director of Global stock strategy, had warned that the results of the Modi government’s election were not as expected to bring back risks to the Indian stock market.In his opinion, although the possibility is not high, if the BJP performance is not as good as expected, the Indian stock market will be adjusted.Woods is particularly worried about the mid -term stocks in the Indian stock market, because these stocks have performed well in the past few months, and the valuations are getting more expensive.In fact, the two industries of global investors, two industries that have traditionally heavy positions -banking and information technology (IT) -The recent performance has appeared fatigue, and Indian bank stocks have also fell today and their declines have reached.Udabur Wealth Management
In addition, even if he is re -elected, Modi’s capital gain tax reform will be another risk that Wood thinks.He said that in the complete budget that will be introduced later this year, if the capital gain tax structure will change, that is, increasing tax rates, or extending the qualification period of long -term returns, or both or both, it will still have a negative impact on the Indian stock market.EssenceThis change is considered to cope with the increasingly increasing Indian retail investors speculative transactions, especially in individual stock markets.Jaipur Investment
Data since this year show that a "drumming flowers" have been completed between India’s domestic retail investors and global investors. Therefore, Indian domestic retail investors are also more important for the Indian stock market prospects.Data show that with India’s transition from savings -type countries to investment -type countries, the proportion of Chinese foreign -funded institutions in the Indian stock market has decreased from 19.13%to 16.51%, while India’s domestic retail investors have increased through personal accounts and common funds.The net purchase amount in the past few months was the highest in 2021.
Will the Indian stock market continue?
Although the short -term invoicing was less than expected, since the beginning of this year, the vast majority of the industry interviewed by the First Financial Reporter continued to be optimistic about the Indian stock market in the medium and long term.
Brian Burrell, the fund manager of Shangbo Investment Management Company, told the First Financial Journalist that in the fundamentals, India has a very large population base and entrepreneurial population. Some companies can recruit more young people to increase corporate profit and incomeEssenceTherefore, the basic situation of the Indian economy and the stock market for many years is very optimistic.
Chen Dong, chief strategist and research director of the Swiss Patek Wealth Management Asia, previously analyzed the first financial reporter that the Indian stock market performed well, in the final analysis, it was supported by fundamental support."On the one hand, the current economic growth in India ranks first among major global economies." He analyzed, "On the other hand, corporate profits have indeed maintained high growth in double -digit, and the main corporate performance has exceededexpected."
Albert Kwok, managing director of Jennison Associates, a member of the Global Investment Management (PGIM), also recently told First Financial reporters that the strength of the Indian stock market was driven by the two factors of the Indian stock market.of.In fundamental perspective, India is still one of the fastest -growing economies in the world, and the growth is gradually promoted by investors’ optimistic investment.At the same time, the Central Bank of India and the government to curb inflation through monetary policy and supply -side reforms have also boosted the confidence of investors.From a technical perspective, the launch of the System Investment Plan (SIP) has also promoted India’s domestic capital flow and domestic investors’ participation in the Indian stock market.The development of the local common fund industry has made the Indian stock market less easily affected by foreign -funded flow, and foreign capital flows are usually very sensitive to the Fed.
Regarding the short -term impact of the election, Guo Jinxi believes that, like any other elections, the election will always make the market "noise and fluctuations".However, unless major accidents have occurred, BJP will continue to govern. Based on this, various types of economic reform and fiscal policies will also be continuous.Bu Weijie said that India’s way of supporting the domestic economy is usually implemented by increasing infrastructure expendituresVaranasi Investment. In this way, related investment will be maintained for several years, so the election should continue to bring up potential to the Indian stock market.
Bangalore Stock Exchange
