Financial Association April 8th (Editor Huang Junzhi) When investors rejoiced when the stock market set a new high, their favorite shelter also reached a new peak -the price of gold reached a historical high of $ 2,328.7 per ounce last weekEssence
David Rosenberg, the top US economist and President of Rosenberg Research, believes that the rise of gold is not over.He said that this momentum may push the gold price to $ 3,000 before the next commercial cycle transition, an increase of 30%over the current level.
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He said in a recent report that the recent gold boom is "particularly impressive" because it not only exceeds Bitcoin and all major currencies, but also overcome the typical macro -winding wind that often lowers its value.
"As the price of gold rose, the US dollar strengthened, and inflation is expected to decline. During this period, the Fed has shifted market expectations to ‘(interest rate) high -level sideways’." He wrote: "All these situations of the situation usually suppress the development of these things.Gold price, but (the actual situation is) the price of gold is still risingPune Wealth Management. "
Before the rise of the future of gold, it is necessary to review the reasons behind the recent rise in gold prices.
Rosenberg and his team said that the main driving force of the recent high price of gold prices does not come from supply (in recent years, it has remained stable), but from demand.Russia, Turkey, and Poland are worried about excessive relying on the US dollar.In addition, many people turn to gold when they resist special economic risks as security guarantees.
In the report, they wrote: "Central banks from various countries are again increasing their holdings on a large scale." Data show that central banks of various countries purchased 361 tons of gold in the third quarter of 2023, and 77 tons were sold for nets in the same period in 2022.
They also found that gold is more attractive in emerging markets such as India and India, while Western investors fall behind because local high interest rates and high stock prices have weakened the attractiveness of low -yield gold.
In addition, the increase in industrial use, especially in the highly active electronics industry, is another price promoter.The report states: "Directly driven by the artificial intelligence boom, the manufacturer work on the night after day, and the prosperity of the chip manufacturing industry must be the driving force for the real gold demand. This demand will not disappear quickly."
Worry about uncertainty
Rosenberg also attributed the recent rise in gold prices to global geopolitical risks and unpredictable macroeconomic prospects.
He said: "The trend of international relations towards militaryization, confrontation, and polarization is difficult to refuteSimla Stock. Therefore, the risk of gold price risks is becoming more and more important."
In terms of currency, he said that as the ratio of US debt to GDP reached 120%, service costs continued to rise, and investors increased gold holdings under the uncertainty and possibility of the fiscal crisis of the election results.
Next stop: $ 3,000
With the stable momentum of gold, Rosenberg expects that as central banks from various countries begin to cut interest rates, the price of gold will rise by about 15%, and the maximum increase may reach 30%.
The economist put forward two scenarios, both of which came to the conclusion that gold will further rise: "soft landing" and typical bear markets.
First of all, in the case of "soft landing", assuming that the global actual interest rate returns to the average level before 2000 (the period higher than the stagnation after the global financial crisis), this will lead to about 12%of the US dollar, and the price of gold will rise by about 10%.
However, if the economy has fallen into a decline-the actual interest rate of the global interest rate returns to the average level of 2014-2024, the stock market stabilizes, the US dollar depreciates about 8%, and the increase in gold is more likely to be 15%, making it enter the $ 2,500 interval.
"Combining these observations with our modeling, we found that the downward risk of gold prices is limited, but there is a lot of room for risingAgra Wealth Management. The possibility of gold price reaching 3,000 US dollars per ounce is far greater than the possibility of falling to $ 1500 per ounce." "" "" "" "" "They wrote and added that if geopolitical tensions have intensified, they will further increase their gold prices.
In the end, Rosenberg concluded that for investors, the main points are very simple: to ensure that you have gold in your investment portfolio and add gold.
(Huang Junzhi, Financial Association)
Bangalore Wealth Management
